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January 18, 2013

Understanding the Super Bowl Stock Market Theory

Sure, we all understand football betting odds, and how to make our favorite tailgating treat, but understanding the Big Game's relationship to Wall Street is a bit hard to grasp, at best. And yes, we think it's a giant coincidence. Still, here's the basic gist: The Super Bowl indicator holds that a victory by an NFC team or an original (pre-1970 merger) NFL team—the Browns, Colts, and Steelers—point to a bullish market the following year. An AFC victory signals a bearish drop in the market. The Super Bowl Theory has been an accurate indicator 37 times out of the past 46 times. Those are pretty good odds. 

1967/I - (Up) Packers, NFL
1968/II - (Up) Packers, NFL
1969/III - (Down) Jets, AFL
1970/IV - (Up) Chiefs, AFL*
1971/V - (Up) Colts, Old NFL
1972/VI - (Up) Cowboys, NFC
1973/VII - (Down) Dolphins, AFC
1974/VIII - (Down) Dolphins, AFC
1975/IX - (Up) Steelers, Old NFL
1976/X - (Up) Steelers, Old NFL
1977/XI - (Down) Raiders, AFC
1978/XII - (Down) Cowboys, NFC*
1979/XIII - (Up) Steelers, Old NFL
1980/XIV - (Up) Steelers, Old NFL
1981/XV - (Down) Raiders, AFC
1982/XVI - (Up) 49ers, NFC
1983/XVII - (Up) Redskins, NFC
1984/XVIII - (Down) Raiders, AFC
1985/XIX - (Up) 49ers, NFC
1986/XX - (Up) Bears, NFC
1987/XXI - (Up) Giants, NFC
1988/XXII - (Up) Redskins, NFC
1989/XXIII - (Up) 49ers, NFC
1990/XXIV - (Down) 49ers, NFC*
1991/XXV - (Up) Giants, NFC
1992/XXVI - (Up) Redskins, NFC
1993/XXVII - (Up) Cowboys, NFC
1994/XXVIII - (Up) Cowboys, NFC
1995/XXIX - (Up) 49ers, NFC
1996/XXX - (Up) Cowboys, NFC
1997/XXXI - (Up) Packers, NFC
1998/XXXII - (Up) Broncos, AFC*
1999/XXXIII - (Up) Broncos, AFC*
2000/XXXIV - (Down) Rams, NFC*
2001/XXXV - (Down) Ravens, AFC
2002/XXXVI - (Down) Patriots, AFC
2003/XXXVII - (Up) Buccaneers, NFC
2004/XXXVIII - (Up) Patriots, AFC*
2005/XXXIX - (Up) - Patriots, AFC
2006/XL - (Up) - Steelers, Old NFL
2007/XLI - (Up) - Colts, Old NFL
2008/XLII - (Down) - Giants, NFC*
2009/XLIII - (Down) - Steelers, Old NFL
2010/XLIV - (Down) - Saints, NFC
2011/XLV - (Up) - Packers, NFC
2012/XLVI - (Up) - Giants, NFC

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